Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are currently the frontrunners for MVP, but the question remains: will it be a two-horse race, or can contenders like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, or Jayson Tatum emerge?
Here's a breakdown of the latest developments in each major NBA award category.
Regular-season MVP
Current Favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-150)
Key Challenger: Nikola Jokic (+130)
Outside Contenders: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+2000), Jayson Tatum (+4000), Victor Wembanyama (+10,000)
For the first time in 18 months, Gilgeous-Alexander has overtaken Jokic as the MVP favorite. SGA is having a remarkable season, posting near career-high numbers across the board. He currently ranks third in the NBA in both scoring (31.3 points per game) and steals (2.0 steals per game). He also leads in key advanced statistics like win shares (7.7, ahead of Jokic's 7.1) and Value Over Replacement Player (4.3, tied with Jokic).
Gilgeous-Alexander’s on-court impact is also at a career-high. The Thunder outscore opponents by 17.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s playing, and are 16.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. These figures are the best on the Thunder by a considerable margin and rank among the NBA’s best. These plus/minus stats highlight SGA’s immense value as the clear leader of arguably the league’s best team.
However, Jokic’s individual performance is arguably even more impressive. While the Nuggets outscore opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokic, they are outscored by over 14 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the court, resulting in a staggering on/off differential of 25.3 points per 100. Jokic also ranks in the top three in scoring (31.5 points per game, second), rebounds (13.0 rebounds per game, third), and assists (9.7 assists per game, second). His overall advanced stats are also generally stronger than SGA’s.
The key difference lies in team success. Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder hold the top seed in the Western Conference with the league's best scoring margin (+12.1 points per game), while Jokic's Nuggets are positioned between fourth and seventh in the West and are struggling to maintain a top-10 league ranking. While Jokic’s individual play might be slightly superior, the Nuggets need to win more games for him to reclaim the MVP lead.
The other players mentioned lag significantly in either individual stats or team success. Antetokounmpo, the NBA’s leading scorer, and Wembanyama, the league leader in blocks, have statistical profiles comparable to Jokic. However, their teams are both struggling to maintain a winning record, making their MVP chances slim unless their teams significantly improve their standings.
Tatum is the top player on the defending champions, and the Celtics are competing for the best record this season. However, his statistical impact doesn't match the others. It's difficult to see a path for Tatum to win MVP against this competition. If Antetokounmpo’s and Wembanyama’s teams go on winning streaks and approach the top of the league, they could become viable candidates, but only with substantial team improvement.
For now, it’s a two-man race between SGA and Jokic. SGA currently holds a slight edge, but this could mean Jokic offers better value. As the reigning MVP with a realistic chance to average a triple-double, he’s currently available at plus-money odds, a relative rarity.
Rookie of the Year
Zach Edey, the preseason favorite for Rookie of the Year, has put up some big games. AP Photo/Randall Benton
Current Favorite: Zach Edey (+115)
Key Challengers: Alexandre Sarr (+300), Yves Missi (+650), Jaylen Wells (+750)
Outside Contenders: Stephon Castle (+3000), Dalton Knecht (+4000)
This has been one of the most unpredictable races this season and is likely to remain so. No single rookie has clearly separated themselves from the pack. Jared McCain was emerging as a frontrunner before his knee injury, which has opened the door for others.
Edey, the preseason favorite, has had some strong performances, such as his 21-point, 16-rebound game against the Raptors on December 26. However, his overall performance has been consistently solid but not spectacular.
Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick, has shown defensive prowess and has scored in double figures in 12 straight games as a consistent starter for the Wizards.
Missi is another strong shot blocker and likely a better rebounder than Sarr, though not as prolific a scorer.
Wells, a starter for the Grizzlies, is a more effective scorer than the big men ahead of him on this list, with three 20-plus point games, including a career-high 30 against the Kings last week.
Castle, a previous favorite, has seen his playing time reduced after returning to the bench for the Spurs. However, his season averages remain competitive, and if he regains a starting role, he could offer significant value at long odds.
Knecht hasn’t had a consistent role with the Lakers, but he has shown offensive explosiveness when given starter minutes, including four 20-plus point games in late November, with one 37-point outburst. This keeps him in the conversation, albeit as a long shot.
Sixth Man of the Year
De'Andre Hunter has blossomed as a scorer and 3-point shooter off the bench in his sixth NBA season. Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
Current Favorite: Payton Pritchard (-250)
Key Challenger: De'Andre Hunter (+350)
Outside Contenders: Amen Thompson (+1200)
The Sixth Man race is typically unpredictable. Last season saw monthly shifts in the leader before Naz Reid ultimately won. This season, Pritchard has been the odds-on favorite for over a month after a strong start. While still a contender, his averages of 15.2 points per game and 3.6 three-pointers per game might not be enough to justify his heavy favorite status, especially given his recent cooling off.
Hunter has been playing exceptionally well since late November, averaging 21.1 points per game and 3.1 three-pointers per game in his last 18 games, closing the gap with Pritchard. Given the difference in odds, Hunter offers better value.
Other players could re-enter this race. Thompson is a key player on a surprising Rockets team. As the No. 3 overall pick, he has significant potential, with multiple recent double-doubles, making him a potential contender.
Most Improved Player
Cade Cunningham's high ceiling could give him the edge in the Most Improved Player race. Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
Current Favorite: Cade Cunningham (+200)
Key Challengers: Jalen Johnson (+425), Tyler Herro (+425)
Outside Contenders: Evan Mobley (+1000), Norman Powell (+1000), Victor Wembanyama (+1400), Dyson Daniels (+1600), Jalen Williams (+2000)
While Herro and Johnson are having strong seasons, Cunningham has the advantage due to his higher potential. While Johnson and Herro have All-Star potential, Cunningham is displaying All-NBA caliber play.
After early career injuries, his improved individual stats and the Pistons’ improved performance make it difficult for others to surpass him. Despite having the shortest odds, Cunningham still offers good value.
Defensive Player of the Year
Victor Wembanyama's shot-blocking prowess makes him a big favorite for DPOY. Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Current Favorite: Victor Wembanyama (-350)
Outside Contenders: Evan Mobley (+1200), Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1200), Rudy Gobert (+3000)
This is the least competitive race. Wembanyama was the preseason favorite, and his increasing lead in blocks per game only strengthens his position.
Mobley, the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year Jackson, or four-time and current Defensive Player of the Year Gobert would typically be strong contenders. However, barring injury or a significant decline in performance, Wemby's current dominance makes him the clear frontrunner for the award this season.
Coach of the Year
Kenny Atkinson has the Cavaliers on pace for 73 wins. Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Leader: Kenny Atkinson (-275) Potential Challengers: Jamahl Mosley (+900), Taylor Jenkins (+1200), Ime Udoka (+1400), Mark Daigneault (+3300)
Atkinson leads the Coach of the Year race due to the Cavaliers' league-best record, a surprising development. Daigneault's Thunder trail the Cavaliers in the standings, but after securing the top seed in the West last season and Daigneault winning last year's coaching award, their continued success isn't impacting his candidacy as much as the Cavaliers' performance is boosting Atkinson's.
Mosley presents a compelling case, having kept the injury-plagued Magic in contention for home-court advantage in the first playoff round. If the Magic surge upon the return of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Mosley could become Atkinson's main competition.
Udoka is also a noteworthy contender, given the unexpected success of the Rockets near the top of the Western Conference. If they maintain this position, and the Cavaliers falter, Udoka could significantly narrow the gap with Atkinson.
